Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Analyzing the Pump Potential for BTC and Altcoins.
Post-Halving: BTC's Incredible Journey, Layer 2's, and Summer Pump Speculation
With the fourth-ever halving of Bitcoin complete, the mining reward every ~10 minutes is now 3.125 BTC per block. This decreased supply (and increased demand from ETF issuance) is likely to continue pushing the BTC price upwards over the coming months and years.
However, for miners, having their revenue cut by 50% every block is a tough pill to swallow, although one they knew was coming, as the algorithm is laid out publicly for halvings every 4 years until the year 2140.
But one thing many forget is that the mining rewards are not the only rewards Bitcoin miners get. There are also transaction fees, which can also be substantial depending on the congestion of the network at the time. With the release of Runes (more on this later) at Bitcoin block 840,000 (the halving block), many users increased their transaction fee to try and get their transaction into the exact block of the halving to mint these new rare satoshis.
Runes are advertised as a better way to make new tokens on Bitcoin than the BRC-20 standard. Both Runes and BRC-20 tokens use Bitcoin and pay fees to create new tokens, but they work differently. The big difference is that Runes use something called the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) model to make new tokens on Bitcoin.
While the mining reward was 3.125 BTC, transaction fees for this same block were a staggering 37.67 BTC, totaling over $2.6 million in fees that miners could collect in this 10-minute block. With the increased adoption of Bitcoin comes a battle for settling fast transactions and an increase in fees, showing that even with the BTC mining reward getting smaller every halving, there are still major incentives for miners to verify Bitcoin transactions and keep the network secure and working effectively.
While the halving was a cool event, it quickly passes over and Bitcoin traders and investors are back to the present moment and focused on the future of Bitcoin and their portfolios. You may say it could be summed up with this photo:
So how will the halving affect the price of Bitcoin in the coming months, or even 1 year later? It’s hard to know exactly as some say with the introduction of the Bitcoin ETFs across the USA, the adoption curve is higher than ever before. However, let's look at all the previous Bitcoin halvings to see if history may repeat itself.
Four Halvings in BTC’s lifetime:
2012 - $12 at halving, $964 1 year later
2016 - $663 at halving, $2,550 1 year later
2020 - $8,740 at halving, $55,801 1 year later
2024 - $63,300 at halving, $???,??? 1 year later
In the first three halvings, Bitcoin’s price was significant multiples higher just 1 year later. With this in mind, we could see a price of over $100,000 in 2025.
Now that the BTC Halving is done, let’s move on, block by block.
Metis: An Emerging Ethereum Layer 2 Solution
Metis is an Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) chain known for its high liquidity and self-sustainability, offering low transaction costs and high throughput for on-chain applications. It's smaller than other Layer 2 solutions in the ecosystem, with a current market cap of $385 million ($685 million fully diluted).
I recently had the chance to chat with Tom Ngo, the Executive Lead at Metis, to delve into what sets the Metis L2 chain apart and how they're attracting dApps from other Ethereum ecosystems to build and deploy on Metis.
We also discussed Liquid Restaking Tokens (LRTs), which have garnered attention recently as an additional benefit of holding ETH. When you stake your ETH, you can earn yield, and you're also provided with a liquid derivative token of ETH, enabling you to continue trading or stake it in DeFi platforms for extra yield. It's a mechanism worth learning more about, and you can start by checking out my conversation below with Tom from Metis.
Supra is nearly 95% complete towards its mainnet launch, with the Token Generation Event approaching soon
I also want to remind you about the Supra blockchain. It's almost ready for its mainnet launch, expected to start with a Full Diluted Valuation of over $1 billion. You can still acquire some SUPRA tokens through their Learn and Earn campaign, which has attracted over 500,000 active participants before the launch. Check out my video with CEO Joshua Tobkin to discover more about the chain, which initially began as an Oracle Price feed and is now expanding into much more. Then, sign up for the Supra Blastoff Campaign for free to secure some tokens before the launch!
Join the Supra Blastoff to get free SUPRA Tokens here.
Minterest: A Flourishing DeFi Platform on Mantle Network
Minterest, a DeFi lending and borrowing platform, continues to excel as the premier DeFi platform on the Mantle Network, a promising layer 2 blockchain with low fees and high scalability.
One strategy to secure your Ethereum long-term is by supplying it to Minterest's interest-earning platform. After transferring ETH into the Mantle Blockchain (mETH) for nearly zero transaction fees and fast confirmations, you can stake it on their platform to earn interest in multiple tokens.
Let's explore how this earning process compares to holding Ethereum in a cold wallet.
When depositing Mantle ETH on the platform, you can earn interest in both MNT (Mantle's native L2 token), mETH (Ethereum on Mantle chain), and MINTY (Minterest's native token, still unreleased).
Compare this with holding regular ETH in a hardware wallet, where you earn 0% interest (aside from the appreciation of the ETH itself, which would also occur if deposited on Minterest).
I am bullish on their platform because it offers the opportunity to earn various tokens, including unreleased presale tokens, simply by holding ETH that you would already be holding without any reward.
Other Crypto News:
A Former Security Engineer was sentenced to three years for hacking two decentralized exchanges. The U.S. Judge also ordered the ex-engineer to forfeit roughly $12.3 million that was stolen.
Plus Hong Kong Approves Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF
Ponke meme continues to rise
The Ethereum blockchain generated a $369.08M profit in Q1 ‘24
BlackRock now holds 273,596 BTC worth $18 billion for its spot Bitcoin ETF. BlackRock's ETF holds 59,350 more bitcoin than MicroStrategy.
After a period of record-setting congestion this weekend, Bitcoin transaction fees have dropped back to levels seen last December.
Market Analysis:
$BTC:
While Bitcoin has recovered slightly from its recent lows, it's been 40 days since the All-Time High. As predicted, the "buy the rumor, sell the news" event for the halving typically peaks around 30 days before the actual event. In this case, it was exactly 39 days.
Both EngineeringRobo and Birbicator Trading Algorithms still indicate a Sell Signal on the 1 Day chart. I believe there might be enough momentum for one final push up to $69,000 - $70,000 in the near future, but for Bitcoin to move higher, it needs to break above that price and establish a support floor above $70,000.
However, the classic "Sell in May and Go Away" adage is quickly approaching, and lower trading volumes may accompany summer vacations.
There is hope for Bitcoin in the short term (in the coming weeks) to rise to $70,000, as EngineeringRobo shows bullish signals on the 3-hour, 45-minute, and 15-minute charts.
$SEI:
SEI as a Layer 1 Blockchain is recovering nicely. It’s harder to tell from the 1 Day chart (which is still Bearish) but SEI is up 13% on the day, as one of the top gainers ion the market today, and currently sits below a $1.4 Billion market cap.
There are ton’s of dApps being built on SEI network, including PredX who we recently interviewed as an AI prediction market, and I expect more application to become well known from SEI moving forward.
According to Upbit's Sei report page, 3% of $SEI tokens are allocated for airdrops🪂
I would consider staking 200+ SEI on the Stakecito validator on "Compass Wallet" chrome extension, the native wallet extension for SEI network, to future proof any airdrop potentials. Nothing is confirmed yet though. You can get SEI onto Compass wallet by withdrawing on SEI network from an exchange like Binance.
Dogecoin ($DOGE):
Dogecoin continues to hold fairly strong and is considered a longer-term investment. While it hasn't experienced the massive pumps seen with other newer memes in the space, it's still anticipated to experience significant growth once Elon Musk finally decides to integrate the coin into X payments.
In the short term, if Bitcoin maintains its strength and reaches $70,000, DOGE is expected to rebound to $0.22. In the long term, it could potentially return to its All-Time High or even surpass it, reaching $0.69+.
Airdrops:
Base:
Mint this REDACTED Eterenal Garden NFT.
Polygon:
Mint this Earth Day FREE NFT from Eco Sapiens on the Polygon Chain.
Linea:
Prepare for Linea Surge by depositing some ETH on Linea chain into Stargate, Pancakeswap, or Mendi Finance. Stake at least 0.1 ETH to qualify for the Linea Surge Campaign.
Linea L-XP activation needed for airdrop! 🚨 The Activation portal closed after being open for a few days, but prepare by depositing the ETH liquidity on Linea and I will have the link to the activation portal in my telegram when the second part is ready.
Thanks for reading!
-Ashton Addison, CEO of Crypto Coin Show