Bitcoin's Final Move in 2023: ETF Approval Imminent, will Altcoins Continue to Rally?
Insights on Bitcoin Denominated Insurance and Cosmos, While Ethereum Finally Gears Up for a Rise
Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
Bitcoin and the crypto scene did not take a holiday break over Christmas. Layer 1 blockchains like Solana, Polygon, NEAR, Optimism, and Arbitrum are all up over 30% this week. It doesn’t show signs of stopping, and soon it’s Bitcoin’s time for popping.
With less than two weeks until the potential approval of the Bitcoin ETF, will this be their time to shine? With Michael Saylor buying more Bitcoin yesterday on the slight dip, and the ETH/BTC turning around, I think so. Read my deeper thoughts in the Market Analysis section.
But first, let's unwrap more fundamentals on Bitcoin, integrating BTC into traditional financial products, and how Bitcoin is moving into the Cosmos/ATOM ecosystem further.
Insurance products will be completely denominated in BTC?
Normally, when you pass away, your life insurance policy will pay out some amount of money to your beneficiaries/children/significant other. Wouldn’t it be amazing if they could be paid out straight in Bitcoin, instead of some inflating fiat currency?
As Bitcoin continues to grow into the mainstream, this has become a reality as Bitcoin moguls are taking over the insurance industry. Meanwhile, a company started by Zac Townsend has developed, with his team, a whole life insurance policy that is 100% in Bitcoin. Your monthly premiums and claims would all be in Bitcoin, and then the beneficiaries receive Bitcoin when the payout happens.
This policy is good if you’re a long-term believer in Bitcoin and is tax-favorable in the long game to pass on your Bitcoin through generations. Zac is playing a very long game on Bitcoin and believes that eventually everything will be denominated in BTC. He refers to the “exchange rate” of Bitcoin rather than the price, as you would any foreign currency like JPY/USD or EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, he has also built a private credit fund denominated entirely in Bitcoin, where you can take loans out in Bitcoin, putting up Bitcoin as collateral, and for those lending money can receive an approximate 5% annual return, entirely in Bitcoin as well. The private credit fund was invested in by Sam Altman of OpenAI and other AI innovators as they are on board for the long-term Bitcoin vision.
I had a very interesting conversation with Zac about his Bitcoin vision, and although life insurance may sound boring, it is an enormous industry at 2-3% of the USA’s GDP. Converting all of that into BTC and adoption will make huge leaps forward. I suggest watching our discussion below with Zac to learn more.
Don’t fade the Cosmos (ATOM/OSMO) ecosystem: Bitcoin is coming
Have you delved into the Cosmos (ATOM) ecosystem yet? It’s renowned for its developer-friendly environment and its IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication protocol), which ties blockchains together to create a more holistic ecosystem.
If you've used Cosmos before, you've likely encountered Osmosis, the leading DEX on the Cosmos blockchain. Both ATOM and OSMO coins have recently performed exceptionally well. As the Cosmos ecosystem continues to expand, Osmosis will likely grow in popularity.
I had the opportunity to speak with Sunny Aggarwal, the CEO of Osmosis Labs, who is also one of the foremost visionaries in the crypto space, about Osmosis DEX and their plans for expansion into other asset classes.
Part of the revealed plans for 2024 include a major focus on Bitcoin (surprise!). Given Bitcoin's prominence in the latter half of 2023, finding ways to drive more utility for BTC through the Cosmos and Osmosis chain will enhance the exchange's value and benefit Bitcoin holders. This involves introducing more perpetual swaps and derivatives of crypto assets.
Taking it a step further, there are plans for Forex and Commodities exchanges with the assistance of the Levana protocol, already linked to Osmosis on the Perpetuals tab on the left-hand side of their platform.
In the next newsletter, I will release an interview with Levana about how their platform works within the Osmosis chain and how they're bringing new financial tools into Web3.
I highly recommend listening to my conversation with Sunny to gain insights into the Cosmos ecosystem and its ongoing development.
Minterest DeFi prepares to launch on Mantle Network
Minterest is the first decentralized money market protocol designed with both self-sustaining tokenomics and the ability to deliver the highest long-term yields for suppliers and the lowest borrowing costs, enabling users to capture up to 5X greater fees distributed 100% back to them. Learn more about them and watch for our updates prior to their Public Launch in Q1 2024.
Minterest is launching their platform on the Mantle blockchain on January 4th and running quests through the #MantleMoonshot campaign on Galxe.
There will be: 66,000 $MINTY rewards and Bonus $MNT yield for deposits.
Follow along for the upcoming launch on the Minterest X and their app.
Other Crypto News:
Ledger was compromised, beyond just the hardware wallet itself. Every dApps that connected to ledger had an issue. However, It has now been fixed.
The Avalanche AVAX network gas fee has soared to an average of 5494 Gas ($41), an increase of more than 200 times as many users look to put inscriptions (new style of NFT’s) on the chain.
Argentina's Foreign Affairs Minister says they ratify and confirm that in Argentina contracts can be agreed in Bitcoin.
Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission says they are prepared to accept Spot Crypto ETF applications.
SEC Chair Gary Gensler says "there is a lot of noncompliance in crypto."
UK Government to establish new digital asset legislation and plans to make the country a crypto hub.
Galaxy Digital CEO says a Spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved before January 10th.
Market Analysis:
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin experienced a slight dip on Christmas, leading to the liquidation of $190 million in higher leverage altcoin traders. However, it maintained support above $41,600, and Michael Saylor, through MicroStrategy, has acquired an additional 14,620 BTC for approximately $615.7 million at an average price of $42,110 per #bitcoin. With the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs on January 10th, 2024, Saylor is keen on loading his bags a bit more before the big day.
Long-term investors, such as Michael Saylor, are in a comfortable position with their Bitcoin holdings. Saylor has now accrued over $2 billion in unrealized profit on his holdings. I anticipate that he will continue holding until his profits reach the tens or even hundreds of billions.
Although I often provide a close-up view of Bitcoin's imminent moves, it's essential to appreciate the broader perspective. Raoul Pal of Real Vision recently underscored this point on Twitter, sharing a long-term chart for Bitcoin. The median line is positioned around $300,000, with the overbought area reaching approximately $1.5 million for one Bitcoin. Imagine that – a compelling thought, isn't it? Remarkably, this chart only extends into 2025, which, in the grand scheme, isn't an exceedingly distant horizon. Looking ahead 10 to 20 years, the Bitcoin price might surpass the confines of this chart.
Never dismiss the possibilities. It's crucial to remember that amid every bull run, Bitcoin typically experiences 25-30% drawdowns on its way to achieving new all-time highs. While retail traders might succumb to fear and part with their Bitcoin during these downturns, individuals like Raoul Pal and Michael Saylor seize these precise moments to accumulate for the long term. Adopt a long-term investor mindset and zoom out!
Ethereum:
Ethereum, closely tethered to Bitcoin, has been trailing behind its counterparts among lower market cap alternative layer 1 blockchains. However, a shift may be on the horizon. As the Bitcoin ETF approval date approaches, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are poised for significant movements in the coming weeks.
Considering the substantial surges (10x and nearly 4x) experienced by similar blockchains in market caps of Solana and Avalanche, it's now Ethereum's turn to play catch-up. Approaching 2024, Ethereum is anticipated to surge beyond $2500, with a subsequent push to $2800-3200 shortly thereafter. Once the momentum builds, Ethereum tends to propel forward with continued momentum!
Zooming out to the 1-month chart, courtesy of a Crypto Twitter friend, el_crypto_prof, you can observe some resemblances on the Ethereum chart to the preceding 2019-2021 cycle. Once Ethereum escapes from this channel, the trajectory could be exclusively upward, potentially surpassing the previous All-Time Highs above $5000 and reaching even greater heights. It promises to be an exhilarating 2024!
Altcoins:
Altcoins have been on easy mode for most of this and last month. Unless you're buying a memecoin or catching the exact top of a recently pumped project, almost all coins are experiencing an upward trend.
Let’s revisit the predictions from our last newsletter on December 14th (not even 10 days ago!):
Solana was at $72 per coin, with an expectation of breaking $100. It peaked a few days back over $120 and is currently sitting at $108.
Avalanche was around $40. It rose to $50 and currently sits around $42. Some consolidation is expected, and it’s still anticipated to move above $60, probably after Ethereum starts moving up.
Fantom was at $0.42, with the first target at $0.52 and then $0.65. Fantom broke the first target and is expected to hit the second in the near future.
NEAR was at $2.28, with the first target at $4 (a 70%+ increase!). NEAR broke those targets and is now at $4.10 already. Incredible, but remember, the all-time highs are still close to $20 overall.
The narrative seems to be shifting back to Ethereum and Layer 2s this week, with ETH up 6% on the day, and Optimism and Arbitrum moving up more than other blockchains. I also think it’s time to revisit LINK, which ran from $6 to $16 early in the altcoin cycle but has been consolidating ever since. Will it make its next moves this week?
Thanks for reading!
-Ashton Addison, CEO of Crypto Coin Show