BTC Bulls Resilient Amidst False ETF Rumor. Bitcoin ETF Approval in 2023?
Analyzing the Potential Timing of Bitcoin ETF Approval, and Syscoin's Fresh Developments
This week in crypto had an exciting start as Cointelegraph announced that the iShares Bitcoin ETF had been accepted. It was HUGE news, except it wasn't true! Meanwhile, after significant volatility, over $100 million in liquidations occurred during the event, leaving the industry in anger over how a top news outlet could make a false statement that could impact the entire industry. Didn't they check their sources?
Now investors are waking up and realizing that when the ETF does get approved, we are going much higher than $30,000. Bitcoin is already steadily climbing back to that price despite the ETF not being approved, yet…
When will the Bitcoin ETF be approved?
Below is an overview of upcoming ETF applications for Bitcoin, including the companies that have filed them and their respective decision deadlines.
As highlighted in red, most of the first and second deadlines were rejected by the SEC, and it's likely that the third deadlines could face similar outcomes. Therefore, we should focus on the final deadlines for when a Bitcoin ETF is more likely to be approved.
While the ARK Bitcoin ETF has the earliest deadline, set for January 10th, 2024, it may not be the one to watch. Many speculators believe that once one Bitcoin ETF is approved, others will follow suit. After all, they are not significantly different from one another; why reject some and accept others?
Hence, we should be most eager for the deadlines on March 14th, 15th, and 19th, 2024.
A crucial point to consider is the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which is expected to take place on April 27th, 2024, just 1.5 months after the potential ETF approval.
The halving event reduces the supply of Bitcoin entering circulation from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block. However, it's worth noting that this information is well-known in advance and is likely to have already been factored into the market prices.
I anticipate that the ETF approval will be a more significant event than the halving. What we witnessed this week, with the false announcement of the iShares Bitcoin ETF, sent Bitcoin soaring from $27,000 to $30,000 within seconds, resulting in a 10% gain. However, once the news was confirmed to be untrue by BlackRock, Bitcoin dropped back down to around $28,000.
Since then, it has been gradually climbing back toward $30,000. Bitcoiners’ received a wake-up call, signaling that when the Bitcoin ETF is approved, BTC is likely to experience much more than a 10% gain in a single day, with some even anticipating 25% gains upon the announcement of approval.
While there are still several months to accumulate Bitcoin before March 14th, there's also a chance it could be approved during any of the third deadlines, occurring on January 15th, 2024. There's an even smaller chance it could gain approval sometime before the end of 2023. Therefore, it's not advisable to wait until the last minute to start accumulating more BTC.
Moving away from Bitcoin, let's shift our focus to a smart contract platform backed by Bitcoin security and integrated with smart contracts, Syscoin.
Syscoin: The Smart Contract capability of Ethereum with the Security of Bitcoin
It's remarkable to consider that the Syscoin blockchain has been in existence for longer than Ethereum and continues to be at the forefront of innovation. They launched in 2014, raising funds in BTC because Ether didn't exist yet.
While many blockchains have come and gone since then, Syscoin has shown its ability to adapt, innovate, and maintain its status as a leading blockchain ecosystem.
The Syscoin ecosystem is currently buzzing with activity, but I'd like to narrow the focus of todays research to a particularly important topic - the tokenization of the stock market. This development is poised to usher billions of dollars into the realm of Web3.
Security Tokens became a hot topic back in 2018. However, five years later, there has been limited progress due to regulatory hurdles, lengthy issuance platforms, and a lack of or low liquidity on exchanges for Security Tokens, all accompanied by entry barriers. So, how can we effectively introduce tokenized stocks into the world of cryptocurrencies?
The Syscoin ecosystem is pioneering a system where security tokens can be issued as ERC-20 tokens and traded on a regular decentralized exchange (DEX). The requirement for extensive KYC measures only occurs at the final point of transaction. This approach has the potential to make security tokens significantly more accessible and easier to trade, acting as a stepping stone to attract new capital into the industry.
At the heart of Syscoin's innovation is Jag Sidhu, a brilliant core developer and a true visionary in the space. I had the privilege of sitting down with him this week to hear how he and his team are reshaping the landscape of security token stocks for the next phase of adoption.
I highly recommend listening to what Jag has to say, and keeping a close eye on $SYS in the coming months.
More Crypto News:
Over $100M in liquidations happen from the Cointelegraph false ETF approval tweet.
UK FCA News - The United Kingdom's financial watchdog has recently expanded its warning list to include over 140 digital asset companies and crypto exchanges, meaning red flags for crypto trading in the UK.
Multi billionaire Mike Novogratz believes a spot Bitcoin ETF is coming in 2023.
US Senator Elizabeth Warren sends letter to White House claiming crypto is a national security threat being used to fund terrorism
Minterest DeFi platform partners with LayerZero to bring L2 costs and speed to decentralized finance (source)
Citadel Wallet starts pre-orders for the first Hardware cold storage waller for Hedera HBAR and Hedera tokens. The pre-order includes the GOTC Guardians of the Citadel NFT, which brings access to the wallet upon release. (source)
US 30-year fixed mortgage rate rises to 8% for the first time in 23 years.
Good reads this week:
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Market Analysis:
All eyes were on Bitcoin this week, following the surge in price caused by the fake news, pushing Bitcoin up to $30,000. Surprisingly, even after the news was debunked, Bitcoin didn't plummet back to its previous levels. Instead, it has been steadily climbing, now reaching beyond $28,500.
The momentum has begun to slow down, but Bitcoin remains relatively stable, even as stocks experience a downtrend during the same period. Bitcoin is currently showing Buy signals on the 1D, 12H, and 3H charts. The only exception is a sell signal on the 1-hour chart. Bitcoin appears to be aiming to maintain its support above $28,200 for the next upward move.
October has historically been Bitcoin's best month, with average returns in positive years reaching around 40%, a significant figure. However, this month, Bitcoin has only seen a modest increase of less than 5% since October 1st. To maintain its impressive track record, Bitcoin will require a substantial price spike in the second half of October. Long-term investors need not be concerned about whether they bought Bitcoin at $28.2k or $28.7k, as the ETF approval and future growth could render anything below $30,000 as a bargain.
In the realm of Ethereum, there are signs of a potential turnaround. A Buy signal has emerged on the 3-hour chart, although bearish signals persist on the daily chart. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has retained its dominance, with the ETH/BTC chart continuing to decline slightly month over month.
Solana stands out as an outlier in the altcoin space, surging by over 10% when Bitcoin also rose. Speculative plays and gambling activities continue to thrive, with smaller-cap coins like $RLB (Rollbit casino) experiencing a 10% increase today, and $LOOM rising from $0.03 to $0.50 since the beginning of September, only to experience a rapid drop to $0.15 within hours. There's always a casino out there for those who enjoy playing the market.
Thanks for reading!
-Ashton Addison, CEO of Crypto Coin Show