Web3 Weekly Recap: BTC Navigating Resistance at 38k, Industry Divided on Next Moves. Drop Soon?
BTC remains in the channel as we cover BTC Market Analysis, Digital Banking, and Web3 Social Media.
Another week of significant updates in the Web3 ecosystem. This week saw only marginal BTC price movement, up 3.6% on the week, inching closer to a major move, either upwards towards 40k or downwards toward 33-35k.
The SEC was set to make decisions on two Bitcoin ETFs this week - the Franklin Bitcoin ETF and the Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF. Both were delayed, a widely expected outcome given that the next approval dates align around January 10th, with higher chances of approval as we approach the Bitcoin Halving.
Coinbase stock has performed well in the past two months as Bitcoin rises. Even during Bitcoin's ranging periods, it continues to appreciate. Coinbase is playing a long game in supporting the industry and is poised to become a major holder and custodian of Bitcoin after the ETFs are approved.
Here's some information from Twitter tweeted from RoninBull on how Coinbase will play a huge role in the Bitcoin ETF and could prosper after the ETF is approved. The amount of ETF’s they custody for is unconfirmed, and they’re making assumption on how much BTC will actually be in custody, but it’s definitely something to think about.
“Coinbase is the custodian for 9 out of 12 BTC ETFs. Let's say half of BTC ends up in ETFs. At 100k BTC will have a 2T market cap. That's ~1T of BTC assets that will be custodied by $COIN. They charge 10 basis points/month, which is 1B of profit/month. That alone equals the same annual profit as Tesla. This will be HUGE for Coinbase."
Combine this ETF hype with the upcoming Bitcoin halving, and we are likely to have demand greatly outweighing supply. Here’s a quick infographic on the Bitcoin halvings that have happened so far and what the incoming supply of Bitcoin will be after this halving as new Bitcoin comes into circulation every block (~10 minutes).
Now let’s dive into the rest of Web3 world, including why you need to diversify into digital banking, how to send crypto for free through social media messenger, and how to prepare for Bitcoin’s next move by monitoring Open Interest and Funding rates
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Is US Banking still Safe?
Remember back in March '23 when the banking sector practically collapsed? It just so happened to be the primary bank serving Crypto and Web3 projects centered in San Francisco and across America.
Many companies weren't prepared, lacking backup plans or diversified banking services. They were left with frozen funds and an inability to cover payroll, customer payments, and more. This scare unveiled the true colors of the US banking system.
Increasingly, Americans are realizing the importance of diversifying financial partners, not just outside one US bank but also outside the US altogether. The rise of digital-only banking and neo-banking is becoming a major competitor to traditional banking in the coming years.
But how close are we to the next leg of the US banking crisis? For those without deep industry knowledge, it's challenging to gauge the severity of the struggles US banks face as they try to conceal it. Fortunately, I had the chance to sit down with Jason Blick, a traditional banking veteran of decades and the CEO of EQIBank, a digital banking enterprise serving customers in 185 countries.
Jason delves deep into the current state of US banking and the upswing of digital banking. If you haven't diversified into digital banking, I highly recommend listening to our conversation on US banking and registering for an account at EQIBank for diversification.
Sending Crypto thru Social Messenger with no fees:
If you read last week's newsletter, you discovered that Calaxy's non-custodial wallet launched its new 'Send Crypto' function, enabling you to send crypto through direct messenger on their social platform in an incredibly user-friendly way.
This week, I had the chance to sit down with Solo Ceesay, the CEO of Calaxy, to hear directly from him how they've cracked the code and actually created a social media platform with Web3 principles that is succeeding.
I've been following Web3 social platforms since 2016 and have tried them all. None of them have stuck around or gained popularity like traditional social media, mainly because they haven't been user-friendly for those not overly qualified in cryptocurrency or very tech-savvy.
There's a reason Instagram and Twitter are so popular. Scroll, scroll, click, scroll. A profile and feed that are very intuitive. So easy even grandma can do it!
Well, Calaxy has truly hit the sweet spot for user experience and built a platform that puts blockchain in the back end. You can send funds to your friends, family, or a creator, influencer, or celebrity you are transacting with right through the direct messenger.
Solo and his Co-Founder Spencer Dinwiddie (The Brooklyn Nets Point Guard) have a grand vision for reinventing social that flips the entire business model on its head. If you're a content creator wanting to offer video responses, private calls, or coaching, you can set up your services directly on your Calaxy profile. Your fans or customers can then send you crypto or fiat payments straight to your non-custodial wallet on Calaxy. The best part? Since they are a web application and not on the iOS store, Apple isn't taking a 30% cut of all transactions like they do on other apps.
I highly recommend getting a Calaxy account for free, securing a good username, and trying the 'Send Crypto' through messenger function or setting up some services if you're an entrepreneur. Users can start paying right off your profile.
Check out my full interview with CEO Solo Ceesay below!
Predicting Bitcoin’s next move: Open Interest and Funding
I learned a lot from Conor Ryder about on-chain and trading data to predict where Bitcoin is moving next and whether that money will flow into Ethereum and the other altcoins.
Conor explains different indicators he researches to predict the next direction of the market, including Open Interest (OI) and funding rates on futures and leverage trading. We also discuss market cycles and the best time to shift your portfolio from Bitcoin into more speculative assets.
Lastly, we delve into stablecoins and their importance in decentralized finance. Owning stablecoins in your portfolio creates great opportunities to "buy the dip" on assets you are looking to invest further in and also serves as a way to mitigate risk if you are adding liquidity to lending pools or engaging in decentralized finance activities. Conor’s team at Ethena has developed a scalable stablecoin not dependent on the banking system. This past summer, Ethena raised $6.5M led by Dragonfly Capital and Arthur Hayes.
If you're seeking more expert analysis on the current market conditions and how to stay informed, I highly recommend listening to our conversation below.
Other Crypto News:
Tether Freezes $225M Linked to Human Trafficking Syndicate Amid DOJ Investigation
Brazilian Bitcoin ETFs now have nearly $100 million in assets under management
Investing legend Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet’s right hand man, has passed away at the age of 99.
SEC delays $1.5 trillion asset manager Franklin Templeton's spot Bitcoin ETF application.
Jamie Dimon says the U.S is addicted to debt and it’s created a dangerous “sugar high” in the economy.
Strike users can now send bitcoin, fiat or stablecoins to other Lightning Addresses on the open network
Jack Dorsey funds $6.2 million initiative OCEAN to decentralize Bitcoin
mining globally with a transparent, non-custodial mining pool
Cristiano Ronaldo sued for promoting sale of unregistered securities with Binance
CoinGecko Expands Cryptocurrency Offering with Zash Acquisition, an NFT Data API aggregator
SoFi is shuttering its crypto trading service following increased scrutiny from the Federal Reserve
Minterest DeFi hints at their first layer 2 integration for their DeFi platform
Market Analysis:
$BTC:
Bitcoin continues its slow ascent, breaking 38k once again this week but unable to surpass these levels into the 39k and 40k region. The chart doesn't show significant green buy volume bars, though Bitcoin remains bullish as long as it holds the bottom green support line.
The majority of the industry is optimistic about the positive factors leading into 2024 (ETF Approval and Halving), indicating long-term bullish sentiment. However, akin to past cycles, there have been instances when Bitcoin dropped 20-30% on its way to new all-time highs. Professional traders like Income Sharks are loading up on shorts, anticipating a drop back into the 33k-35k range, where larger players will likely accumulate for the next upward move.
On the other hand, traders like Crypto Wizz expect an initial push to 40k, followed by a drop back to the 31-35k level. This scenario provides an ideal short setup for those looking to hedge their long-term long positions.
Meanwhile, swing traders are looking at shorter term plays for altcoins, which can often move up wildly while Bitcoin is stuck in a range. These types of traders ensure to mitigate their downside risk, especially if leveraging, because if Bitcoin decides to drop for example 10%, there is a exponential affect on altcoins that could easily drop 30%+ at the same time.
$ETH Ethereum:
Ethereum is holding above the $2000 level; however, as a psychological support line, it doesn't seem particularly robust. Ethereum's next move will likely be determined by Bitcoin, acting as the rising tide that either lifts all boats or sinks them. If Bitcoin and Ethereum decide to move up, and Ethereum breaks above $2200, it could easily reach the $2500 level within days.
Despite bullish news about an Ethereum trust and ETF from BlackRock and other major players, the market reaction has been minimal. Similar to smart players loading up on BTC during the summer before the market moved due to fake ETF news, long-term investors in Ethereum are likely accumulating over the next months leading up to the Bitcoin halving. Even if an Ethereum ETF takes longer than BTC, the rise in BTC price should also contribute to the appreciation of ETH.
On the 12-hour chart, Ethereum currently looks promising. ETH broke above the resistance formation present throughout November and is heading towards testing the $2140 resistance level it has touched twice before. It could aim for two more touches at $2140, and on the fourth touch, I would expect more strength to break to higher highs, as long as Bitcoin does anything other than breaking down to lower lows.
Thanks for reading!
-Ashton Addison, CEO of Crypto Coin Show